Leeds 1-1 Manchester United: Carrick's 'Fresh Start' Looks a Lot Like January

Back in January, Leeds 1-1 United at Elland Road was Ruben Amorim's last match. Today, the same score at the same ground is "a bit of a fresh start," according to Michael Carrick (to Sky Sports and the Press Association).

We don't buy the label. The good feeling Carrick sold us on Friday was real, and today it showed up as effort and nothing else. United ran, tackled and took the lead, then backed off it until Leeds broke through. That's three 1-1 draws in a row in the league: Fulham, Spurs, Leeds. Three of the same result is a pattern, and Carrick is calling the third one a reset.

Grading the preview

Our preview called it Leeds 1-1 United and said Carrick's feeling was "half real: real enough to take a point at a loud ground, not real enough to win there." We'll take that one.

We said Lisandro Martínez was the tell, and that we'd start him. Carrick did, which answers the "not a drama" question better than any press conference. Then Martínez came off at half-time with a tight thigh (per the Guardian and PA), Noussair Mazraoui came on, and Leeds scored six minutes later.

That's where we were half wrong. We said the back line would decide it: if Luke Shaw failed his test and the defense got reshuffled, Leeds would score first and win. Shaw wasn't in the matchday squad, and the defense did get reshuffled, at the break instead of before kickoff. But United scored first, and Leeds didn't win.

The projections missed something too. Neither Sports Mole nor Opta Analyst picked Andrey Santos, and he started next to Carlos Baleba in midfield. Opta's Marcus Rashford never got off the bench.

One goal, then a wall

The goal was good. Youri Tielemans slid a low cross in on 35 minutes and Bryan Mbeumo turned it past James Trafford at the front post. That's Mbeumo scoring in back-to-back league matches, and Carrick's praise for him afterward was fair: "He sacrifices so much," he said (to BBC Sport's Simon Stone, via Yahoo Sports).

Then United gave Leeds the ball and waited. ESPN's match stats have Leeds on 61% possession, 1.44 expected goals to our 0.91, and five shots on target to our three. Daniel Farke saw it from the other dugout: "Because they played so deep it was more important instead of going for the genius pass, to threaten them with physicality," he told the Leeds club site. He also said his side "had to defend a bit like a basketball team, always quick transition moments for Man United." That's a home manager describing an away team happy to sit back and counter, with a lead it had no plan to add to.

The equalizer came from a set piece. Leeds' report has Anton Stach's corner flicked on by Tarik Muharemović and Dominic Calvert-Lewin finishing past Senne Lammens on 51 minutes. Calvert-Lewin's verdict, to Sky: "I think we were unlucky not to win the game." On the numbers, he has a point.

Carrick's changes came late. Mason Mount replaced Baleba on 74 minutes and Matheus Cunha replaced Tielemans on 84. Rashford and Joshua Zirkzee watched the whole thing.

Plenty of spirit, not much bravery

Harry Maguire said the quiet part to Sky: "we are not as brave as we should be." He's right, and it matters more than the spirit everyone wanted to talk about. After Madrid and the Martínez interview, United needed to show they still cared, and they did, but caring is the minimum at this club. Ask yourself whether Keane would have stood for a 1-0 lead at Elland Road being handed back with the ball at the other end.

Carrick knows how it looks. "I understand the situation doesn't look too good if you look at it from a certain way," he said (via the Guardian's Jamie Jackson and PA). The table doesn't come with angles. United are 13th on 7 points from seven, with one league win, over Ipswich on Aug. 30 (the table). It's six without a win in all competitions, and the last one was 4-0 over Sabah on Sept. 10.

Gary Neville gave him a deadline on Sky: "If they're 13th in January, he's got a problem because then you are what you are." We'd move it up to next Sunday.

What's next

Como away in the Champions League on Wednesday, Oct. 21, at 12:45 p.m. ET (9:45 a.m. PT) on Paramount+. Then Bournemouth at Old Trafford on Sunday, Oct. 25, at 10 a.m. ET (7 a.m. PT). Bournemouth are 15th on 6 points (full schedule). If the fresh start is real, it beats Bournemouth at home with the ball. Another 1-1 there and we'll stop asking about the feeling in the group.

Alarm's set. Coffee's on. Come on, United.

Sources: ESPN match stats, report and Carrick story; Sky Sports (Laura Hunter's report, Gary Neville); Press Association, Simon Peach (via the Irish News); the Guardian, Jamie Jackson (via AOL); NBC Sports; Leeds United (match report, Farke); BBC Sport, Simon Stone (via Yahoo Sports). Team sheets from ESPN. Numbers from our schedule and table data and ESPN.